AIRLINES IN THE NEWS - INDIA 2012 VERSION

The earlier blog was published in 2006 and available on this link HERE. This is an updated version of the same.

Airlines make news for all kinds of reasons and lately it is all for all the wrong reasons. Airlines Worldwide are having problems compounded by rising fuel prices. Airlines in India, however, face a multitude of problems starting from the promoters own fault of improper business plans and setting out in a business that has generally a very low tolerance for mistakes of any kind to a regulator who believes in reacting to situations than action to prevent something from happening and the problem carries on to poor planning, high cost of fuel, irrational pricing and as one can see, it starts becoming one long endless list of woes.

Now, coming to the story in India, people who made claims that their Airline will make profits from the first year of starting operations, face heavy losses, if one cares to remember flamboyant Liquor Baron Vijay Mallya’s statements when they first launched their Airline. It’s not good times for them or their competition, even though the Indian market has grown tremendously and is set to grow at a rapid pace further.

I don’t claim that I was the only one who saw it coming when I made those predictions in 2005/06 (and got a lot of flak for it back then), about losses in aviation and the need to merge, consolidate and all that, there were a few others, but industry captains at that time were quite smug in their attitude. Not too many of the so-called experts whose sound bites get recorded from time to time in India predicted a bloodbath in terms of red ink. I did, but got ink thrown at me for being overly negative in outlook. Now fast forward from 2005/06 to 2012 and I am clearly vindicated. I never wished something bad to happen, only saw that the learning curve that the Airlines in India were starting on was something we had all gone through and seen in the West. Now who listens to free advice?

One of these Aviation expert organizations even gave away awards for Airlines as being the best in terms of glitz, glamour, quality of service and so on. Of course surveys were conducted using passenger’s feedback and that too in the era before IndiGo came around and offered on time reliable service. Pamper a guy and he'll love you. Ask him about management of the Airline, ground operations chaos, technical deficiencies and he'll give you a blank look. No wonder die hard Kingfisher fans feel let down by their favourite Airline’s dismal performance. Pampering your customer is good but how about running a profitable company? How about getting an award for being the most profitable or even barely viable Airline of the year? First prize goes to so and so Airline for making ends meet. That would be good. I had said in that 2006 Blog that there would be no Airline in India that can claim this prize at the moment. That was before IndiGo started and now quietly going about their business for expanding their fleet and network across India and a few International sectors.

The Captains of the industry only saw roses or fooled the public into thinking that way and made money out of them. Case in point Jet Airways Initial Public Offering priced at Indian Rupees 1250 (was it) and the share value is now down to less than half the IPO amount. This is what I wrote back in 2006. JetAir stock price today in Feb 2012 is approximately Rs.306!  Even less than I had thought it would sink to from its lofty IPO offering that was lapped up by investors. I was one of the few holding a red flag and no one bothered.

Here is a paragraph I wrote in 206 that still holds good, mostly, even now: “Sure there are genuine problems of tarmac space; congestion in the skies, antiquated air traffic equipment and systems, ill-trained foreign (chaps who can't speak English well enough to be understood by ATC) and Indian pilots (who can't land in Delhi in fog because they are not suitably trained), add the lack of quality middle and upper management and the masala becomes a dangerous mix. Add to this broth, the offering of free seats, deeply discounted cheap tickets, free gifts, low cut blouses and short skirts and you’ve got the public salivating and traveling in larger numbers than ever before. Good for the common man and he should make the most of it while the party lasts”. Cut to 2012 and apparently the party is over for many players! Air Deccan is long gone and so is Air Sahara. The party animal, King of Good times Kingfisher, moves from the edge of the precipice being held back  by a single strand of hair.

I wrote this in 2006: That’s when mergers and consolidations become a necessity, and I still predict some large scale bankruptcies that will leave a lot of employees and others high and dry. People who you see on TV sporting large smiles and making outlandish predictions will get out of the business, surely they are packaging the business to sell- cut to 2012- I said this of Kingfisher Airlines who is now banking on foreign Airlines to come in an pump in fresh equity.

I said in 2005/06: “Airlines in India have already consolidated in one way. They have formed a lobby of sorts. Long term scenario? Let’s see now. I'l close my eyes, pretend I am a soothsayer and predict that a couple of Airlines are going to go down (as in closing down, don’t want to scare the reader), a couple of them being sold off and a few mergers happening. Result will be that the fare paying passenger is going to have to pay more money, that’s for sure. In any case, running an Airline below cost (or any other business for that matter) is not viable. Don't need to be an expert to say this”.

Also in 2006, I wrote: “There’s another curious activity going on these days that’s also making news. Financial companies, investment firms and other corporate types are buying up small equity shares in some of the Airlines. I don’t know why and some seem keen on picking up larger equity. I don’t know who is advising these guys and I’ll bet there is an army of CA’s and MBA’s in ties involved. Oh, I did hear some sound bites from the “experts” about this and they were saying: “these are very positive a signs indeed, signs of maturity, such an investment lends credibility etc etc” and all that hogwash these guys come up with. And they get paid a mint, mind you, to say all this rubbish”. Remember the late 90’s when over a hundred chaps in ties converged on Damania Airways and the Airline was taken over by NEPC Airlines in what was then termed as the “fastest Airline take over in the history of aviation”. Remember that? What the business magazines, newspapers and TV’s forgot to mention later was, that this was also perhaps the “fastest Airline to go down the tubes after the takeover in history”. Leave the suits and ties chaps who came out Biz schools out of this, they don’t understand aviation. You don’t wear a suit and sit in an office and learn about aviation”.

I come back to the present day and can’t help feeling despondent about what I wrote back then 5-6 years ago. I am not happy at being proven right. Anyway, moving forward, here are things that I see currently happening. Indian Government, after a long stupor has decided to favour some players and permit foreign Airlines FDI in Indian aviation. They have also decided to let go of their Oil companies monopoly to help Airlines import fuel directly and avoid paying taxes. Are these moves going to help? I am left wondering about it too. While these are factors that may help bottomlines, I still don’t see anything but an erosion of values in the Industry.

One can throw freebies and incentives one after another to help the sector but fundamental changes need to take places, starting immediately by professionalizing the DGCA into a Civil Aviation Authority. The Airlines have to go back to the drawing board and put a practical business plan together, one that will help them grow and consolidate steadily instead of a mad ego driven rush to topple so and so from the top of the leader board. Pragmatism must set in. A fundamental shift in the sector must take place. Innovation must be a driver in this endeavour. I see some of them doing this, like IndiGo. Rest of them, including state owned Air India is sleep walking as I see it. Unless they re-invent themselves, Airlines like Kingfisher and others will keep afloat only by kicking the can further down the road. And that is never a solution for an Industry with wafer thin margins. Let us hope that the aviation sector in India and elsewhere have Happy Landings in the future, in the near future. We can only hope. 

SUNDARBANS – WORLD’S LARGEST MANGROVE

I arrived in Sundarbans, the World’s largest mangrove forest, famous for its chief inhabitant – the Royal Bengal Tiger, on a hot morning in April 2010. Now, getting here can be an adventure and perhaps a challenge in itself, because of the remoteness of this place. If you look at the map of India and its Eastern border with Bangladesh, you’d notice a string of marshy islands with hundreds, perhaps thousands of minor rivulets cutting in and around the various islands. These low level islands constitute the Sundarbans- a word in Bengali that means “beautiful forest” but the name is actually derived from a mangrove tree called Sundari, which also means beautiful. There are many ways of getting here from Kolkata, the nearest major city, all of those ways are somewhat complicated but I will provide those details at the end of this blog. Here I am going to recount the route I took and the method that seemed the shortest way to get to the Sundarbans Tiger Reserve on Sajenkhali Island.


(Islands of the Sundarbans)

I rented a vehicle, air-conditioned of course, the April heat this year being exceptionally hot on record, I was not going to rough it out like I would have in my younger days or in better weather. I don’t mind roughing it out once I get to my destination but if I can avoid a rough ride to get there, I’ll do it any day. Driving down, one heads South from Kolkata on a narrow state highway that passes through the outer fringes of Kolkata, passing through stinking areas of leather processing plants, brick kilns, small and very congested fish and vegetable markets, grubby satellite towns and so on. After about 40 kilometers from Kolkata we seemed to have left everything behind and all that I could see were vegetable gardens, water pools, canals and for some time we paralleled a river that was quite polluted, a river that leaves India and goes into Bangladesh at some point. Apparently it’s our polluted gift to the people there!

(Chimneys belching smoke-brick kilns)

The small villages of Bengal are neat, with mud walled huts and clean surroundings, a far cry from dirty villages that I have seen in many parts of Southern India. These villages were neat and tidy and one is surprised at the level of cleanliness after leaving the dirty polluted environment of a big city like Kolkata. Each mud house has a small pond near it, called a “pukur”. I suppose this water is used for many things, I saw people swimming in it, bathing in it and even cleaning their vessels and clothes in it.
We passed through several such villages, some of them the driver knew by name and most he didn’t. What mattered to me was that he was able to find the route correctly, even choosing the right forks in the road and so on, since signboards were entirely missing.


The last town and it’s a really small town is Basanti and possibly the last place where one can use their ATM cards to withdraw cash, I saw a new one being installed in the town, off the main highway, at the State Bank of India. 10 Kms from Basanti is the waterfront, a place called Godkhali where one can park their hired cars for a fee, at sheltered car parking areas. A short distance away at the waterside is a bus stop type shelter for the country boats and water taxis that ply between Godkhali and Gosaba. Gosaba is a large island and gateway to the Sundarbans. Overloaded, open to air/sun ferries with people and bikes cross the waterway between Godkhali and Gosaba, one look at the engine and one can start praying straightaway to their favorite God because the entire thing looks too rickety to support that many people.

(Country boat before people, livestock, motorcycles etc get on it)

The system is strange, they go a short distance and collect more people from what looks like sand bank and then cross a larger section of water to Gosaba. When one gets off at Gosaba, a guy with a wooden table sits at the point of exit and I noticed that everyone placed a One Rupee coin on his table as they exit. I too did the same, do as the locals do, I thought. One Rupee is a great deal for 20 minutes in the Sun on an overloaded country boat indeed.



Now, just so that I don’t scare the bejesus out of you readers, let me tell you that if you are in a group or booked through a resort that’s on Bali Island, one can proceed by a covered vessel that starts from Godkhali to the resort directly. I was alone and did not want to take one large boat to go to Sajnekhali, that’s where the Government run Forest Guest House is, inside the Sundarbans Tiger Reserve, where I planned to stay. For one person, it would have cost me a few thousand Rupees in this offseason. Anyway, the adventurous side in me wouldn’t have it. I really wanted to experience this as the locals do.

Once on Gosaba, I was told that I needed to take a “van” ride to the Southern part of the Island and catch another water taxi to Sajnekhali. So, I set off to hunt for a van. On the way, I passed through a small lane market, bustling with people and goods exhibited like a fair was going on. This seems to be a normal affair everyday, with Islanders flocking to buy everything from medicines to groceries to Vegetables and fish of course. At the end of the market, it just suddenly stops, I spotted a State Bank of India with an ATM there! Imagine, you are in the middle of nowhere, village island at the edge of the Sundarbans and there was 21st Century convenience! That euphoria was short lived when I found out that the ATM had broken down and had not been fixed for some time! Carrying some cash is a prudent thing to do when you are going to visit the boondocks.

(Riding on a cycle van through Gosaba)

Backtracking to the market and not seeing any “van”, I asked a local yokel where I could find a van and being a good Samaritan that he was, led me to a group of cycle rickshaws at the stand and told me in Bengali and sign language that I had to get on it. This cycle rickshaw is a bicycle hinged to a flat bed made of wood. One sits all around it, I believe 9 people can share a ride! I thought that this wiry bloke on the cycle rickshaw was going to take me to another place where one could continue in a Van. It struck me a little while later, during the 45 minutes cycling this guy did, with me and my bag on the flatbed and trying a conversation, to realize that this contraption was indeed “the van”, it’s a cycle van, he told me, sweat dripping off his legs as he pumped furiously, speeding on the narrow road, dodging people and other “vans” coming from the opposite side.

(Cycle van perspective)

The two videos posted above gives a good idea of what it feels like bumping along on the van for 45 minutes, going through many neat villages of Gosaba before finally ending up at what they call Sajnekhali ghat (or Pakhirala - another name for this place), the place to catch another open to air country boat to Sajnekhali Island, home to the Sajnekhali Tiger Camp, a part of the core area of the Sundarbans Tiger Reserve. This time, however, I was the lone paying occupant of the country boat and accompanying me were two others who worked on Sajnekhali island which has no other occupants or villages. Check out this video of the boat and its engine.

(Boat from Pakhirala to Sajnekhali Tiger Camp)

The next part will have stories about my boat trip into the Sudhanyakhali Tiger Reserve in the core area of the Sundarbans, my animal encounters in the Sundarbans, Legend of Bon Bibi and will have videos and more pictures of these things. Coming soon!

DID NOT DISAPPEAR!

Just when people thought I’d disappeared, I’m back. Since my last blog about the Singapore Kite Festival, lots’ of things have been going on. Dad went into ICU first week of Feb and by 12th he was no more. I was in India for the whole time. Since that is a very personal event, I'm not going to say much except that my Dad was a simple, straightforward, decent and honest to the core. Qualities one can try and emulate. After going back home to Singapore, I started to get calls to come back to do interesting projects in aviation in India and so I came back on 20th March. Since then it’s been Bharat Darshan for me, touring all over the Country in this hot summer weather.

I started in Mysore, Bangalore and Goa, where my little apartment is, and then progressed on to Kolkata. Being the environment buff that I am, and particularly fond of mangroves and the Tiger, it was quite obvious that I’d end up in the Sundarbans, the World’s largest mangrove area. To say it was magical itself would be an understatement and a few lines cannot describe the place. This I will blog about as soon as I go back home to better Internet connection and when I get back to comfort of my desk. I have photos and videos to post on Sundarbans.

Then I had trips to Bhubaneshwar, New Delhi twice and Ahmadabad. There’s more work to be done, mostly with Government agencies and that needs plenty of patience. I’d probably break this on going trip with a visit back home to regain my sanity a bit. I’m so looking forward to more visits to wildlife reserves and Biospheres in the next leg. Wildlife and conservation is something that can get me going non-stop but that’d bore everyone else so I’ll end that topic here for now.

Since I have been traveling so much and working so hard in this trying (and tiring) climate, there’s not been time (or inclination) to blog. Hence this long gap. You can’t keep a good man down so I took solace in twitter, where I could micro blog and find instant gratification. So, anyone who follows me there would have tracked all my movements and stories, albeit in 140 characters at a time! I’m not on Twitter because of the likes of cattle class interlocutors like Shashi Tharoor or that lisping Kingpin of IPL (not any more) Lalith Modi. I don’t follow any celebrity for that matter, just normal people, some of whom have become real good friends now, in the real World.

There’s so much in India that one can be proud about and so much that one can be depressed about, not reached the stage where the former is at higher percentage than the latter, unfortunately. For me, the need of the hour is conservation of Wildlife, we are losing Tigers and forests and our source of water supply, Oxygen, carbon sink and so on. I am studying a more vibrant involvement with small NGO’s that are into this or get one started on my own. That’s a goal for me next, side by side with all the other projects that I am doing, with a plan to offset actively, carbon footprint as a result of such activity. There I go again, pontificating about the environment. But I guess I do so because I am passionate about it and feel the need to have this all -important issue on the front burner at all times. That way, something gets done and directly results in benefits to humans.

That’s it for now next blog will be about the Sundarbans, an area seldom visited during summer and hence pristine and empty. I was there and returned with a story to tell. Till then, Ciao!

XMAS TIME IN SINGAPORE

Its early Christmas for Singapore. They do all festive events on a grand scale here. Christmas season starts a month before the actual dates, bringing in an air of cheer all around. I have spent many Christmas's in different parts of the World but I must say Singapore goes overboard in decorations like no place else. All over this Country, during this entire month, one can find Christmas trees inside every mall, outside every mall, in other public areas and roads such as Orchard Road and coupled with fabulous lighting everywhere.

(Orchard Road above and below)

They call it Christmas in the tropics. It never gets cold enough here to feel a seasonal change into winter. It just gets rainier. That's not as depressing as, say raining and snow right through the long winter months in Europe and North America. Been there, done that.

(An Elf hanging around-should he not be helping Santa?)

This is my 3rd X Mas in Singapore and every year I have observed changes. Nothing is repeated in Singapore, there is always something new, some innovation, some new idea to bring people out on the streets and enjoy the sights. X Mas brings in hoards of tourists as well because the atmosphere is so cheerful, colorful and bright. If you are looking for retail therapy, you got to be in Singapore during this time!

(X Mas tree outside Paragon Singapore)

I grew up in Mysore and had a few Christian friends around. I won't go too much into the various denominations of the religion, but suffice to say I had good experiences with all of them. My childhood memories, what little I have left in my head, reminds me of the X mas day mass I used to go in that little neighborhood church, the choir singing in Kannada and English and the subsequent lunch. Of course one cannot forget the rum and raisin cakes (yup we got to eat that as kids!). My family was quite liberal in terms of everything, including participating in various religious activities of other religions as well. I am grateful for that upbringing.

(Outside Ion Orchard, Singapore)

I remember attending X Mas midnight mass in Trivandrum, Kerala, India, with friends of mine and the atmosphere that was so cheerful and charged. I could not sing the songs, they were mostly in Malayalam. Unlike Mysore, it never got cold or even cool in Trivandrum (Now Thiruvananthapuram). I remember my first white X Mas. I was attending X mas day prayers with friends in New Jersey 20 years ago and we had early snow, large amounts of it. That lent a completely different atmosphere to the whole event. It felt like real X Mas for the first time in my life, the cold, the white blanket on the ground and on tree branches, of snow on top of cars, it was truly magical. Maybe my mind always had this image of X Mas and snow, from reading articles and from comics. I always wished, as a child, to see a "real" X Mas. In New Jersey two decades ago, I finally saw that during X Mas. I had seen snow before but not on X Mas eve or X Mas day.

(X Mas tree inside a Mall on Orchard)

I had a few more X Mas in the tropics, couple of times in Florida where it was still shorts and T Shirt weather and once in the Bahamas. The Bahamas visit was a coincidence but it was X Mas time and everything else being shut down, I wandered around till I found this nice church. It did not have many people for mass but it had a nice air about it. The preacher noticed me and at the end of the service, he chatted up with me asking about where I was from and so on. He had that sing-song Caribbean accent. It was all so pleasant.

A few other places where we had a good time during Christmas was in the Maldives, although not permitted there publicly, I had enough friends who could organize a mean party. What was missing was Church services. Where I had a lot of fun during Christmas, without missing Church services and enjoying the atmosphere of Christmas was in Goa, a few years ago. I am so looking forward to doing that again once I start living there.

(From "Inside" an X Mas tree-they had hung crystal balls inside the skeleton)

Back to Singapore now. I took these pictures from my fogged up phone and they are not the greatest but hopefully they will show some aspects of how Singapore is all decked up for X Mas. I know many people lament that Christmas time has become very commercialized and all that. That won't stop me from enjoying the season. That's the World today, lets just make the best of it, I do, the season makes me feel good as I am sure it does others. I will be blogging before the end of the year, so I'll hold off on wishing everyone right now. Have a great December all!
More pictures of Orchard Road, evening time:

SOUTH GOA – MOBOR - BETUL BEACH

I’m fond of South Goa beaches. These include Colva (my new home to be) and heading south from there to Benaulim, Varca, Mobor (Cavelossim) and ending up at Betul beach where the River Sal meets the Arabian Sea. I wrote a bit about River Sal in my previous Goa blog here.

I am not against North Goa beaches that are well known to all like Baga, Calangute, Anjuna and so on but that’s not my game, its too white (population of Brits, European and Russian I mean), too commercialized, too crowded, too many things going on and very happening. For me, I’d like the quieter parts that South Goa offers. I won’t include other famous South Goa beaches like Palolem for now but let me give some glimpses Mobor and Betul here.

Mobor-Cavelossim (as it is known) has some fine hotels in the vicinity of its famous beach. The hotels are mostly for the well heeled and in a way keeps out riff raff. Some of these hotels have beachfront like property that looks like the Hotels own stretches of this beach but that is not true, the beaches are indeed public. Elite Hotels like the Leela Palace are on top of the list in this stretch and moving on down the list to The Holiday Inn and further to budget hotels nearby that are quite good frankly, although without immediate beach access. There’s something good to suit all budgets.


(Fishing boat at the mouth of the Sal and Arabian Sea)

My favorite time at Mobor is in the evenings. I like this a lot, warm waters gently lapping at your feet while you walk on the edge of the water and the soft sand of the beach. The sunset in the horizon, changing hues of orange to somewhat deep red before plunging below. The soft sounds of the waves and the gentle breeze. I like stopping by and watching little birds run behind small crustaceans on the exposed wet sand when the tide goes out and then they come running back when the waves return towards the beach. For me that’s what a piece of heaven would feel like.


(Sunset at Betul)

One can relax by the seaside into the evening and night, there are a few good “shacks” where one can order up cocktails, mocktails and whatever else one fancies. I like the starts showing up as the sky darkens, the breeze still soft and less humid. It is seafood paradise, Goa is, and I’d encourage everyone to try some of the local dishes. Vegetarians don’t despair, there are options available, although it may not be extensive. South Goa beaches are a series of villages by the sea, all very clean and some villages still offering some very fine examples of old Portuguese architectures in their Casas.


(Islets formed by the Sal and the Sea)

I like that short stretch of walk between Mobor and Betul beach, reaching a point where the River Sal meets with the Arabian Sea. The Leela is located at this spot. Its really picturesque. There’s Betul Beach, soft sand bordering the river Sal’s mouth and on the other side is a line of Hills. The beach itself has various small channels that bring in water from the river to the sea and vice versa. One can stand on sand banks in low tide and watch water all around the little “island” that you are on. Some of the pictures accompanying this post would help imagine this.


(Sunset over the sand bar)

I normally just take the village road that runs parallel to the sea, from The Madgao-Colva road past villages and rice fields, going South. In high season this narrow road can have lots of traffic going at high speed, so if you are renting a two-wheeler, wear a helmet and be careful! If you are coming from Madgao side, on the road going to Colva, you’ll see a lot of signboards showing either Leela Palace. Take a left and drive till you see Mobor beach or till you drive into the River Sal eventually because the road ends there! The turn off to the left, facing Colva beach side is at a cross road just before the famous Colva Church of Our Lady of Mercy. If you go past the Church (Church on your right side), you have missed the turn. Never mind, take the next left and that road joins up with the road that you missed!

Betul is famous for this "river meets sea" location. I have also seen tour operators who take people out in boats to watch for Dolphins in the area and also motor up the river to a fishing village and take a look at the fresh catch of the day. I’d just go there to un-clutter my otherwise cluttered brain and let the feeling of peace and tranquility wash over me.

DUDHSAGAR FALLS

Dudh Sagar (Konkani words, also spelt doodh sagar in Hindi) literally means sea of milk. This is the name given to a waterfalls in the tiny state of Goa, in India. Since the water rushes down the hills and sort of looks white and foamy during the monsoon, it has earned the name as such. Of course there is a legend/myth around this name as well, like many places in India. In short, the story goes as follows. There was a princess who used to bathe in the falls a long time ago. She used to drink a jug of milk right after her bath everyday it seems (don't ask me why!). one day she was startled to see a handsome prince (what did you expect) who had stumbled on to the falls and since she was in the buff, she grew red in the face and poured the jug of milk in front of her into the waterfall. This milky white water shielded her for a brief moment that it took the attendants to drape a cloth over her and protect her modesty. Anyway, I am sure it was better told in a long and romantic version than my twitter style abridged version.


(Top of falls from a distance - click on all the pictures for an expanded view)

The falls has a total fall height of 1017 feet, the ecosystem around the hills and the falls is almost pristine, the mining activity has been at a fair distance away and thank heavens for that. The falls is located in the hills of Goa off a bumpy highway NH-4A, about 45 Kms from Madgao. The destruction of the road and red mud colors of the tarmac is a result of Iron Ore mining in the area and spill over from mining trucks that speed along this highway. I went on an earlier trip during the dry season and drove all around Goa. I can safely say that these mining trucks are best avoided, they drive at breakneck speed, are rash with their turns and sometimes you can get stuck behind a convoy of them belching thick black smoke.


(Not spectacular in dry season as one can see above)

Once you get off the Highway, it’s OK though. At Collem, one needs to get into an SUV and there are several of them operated by local companies there. “Normal” cars are best left parked. The terrain is muddy, rocky and no road exists in many sections. The only way is by these SUV’s that one can hire with driver either exclusively or by sharing with other visitors. This is all easily done. The SUV will take you to the falls and after an hour and a half, bring you back to where you had parked our car (or bus if you came by bus or any other transportation from Madgao. I believe there is a train service between Madgao and Collem. I am not sure of the frequency or costs as I have not experienced it.

Bhagwan Mahavir Forest surrounds the falls and the Forest Department collects money as Entrance Fee. I think it wasn’t more than Rs. 20 (less than 50 cents US). There are additional charges for cameras like they do in many places in India and these charges are based on the type of camera one has, an ordinary still camera is cheaper than video ones. Of course I find it funny. These days a lot of people just carry their cell phones that have great cameras and video capability too. That’s not charged. So, go figure.


(View from front seat of an SUV crossing the stream)

Riding in the SUV is great fun. The vehicle goes in and out of large depressions in the ground, over rocks and also crossing shallow streams. The drivers are good and what looks like a hairy piece of road is easy for them. I guess this is the exciting part of visiting the falls because once you get there, if the crowds are low, it is mostly quiet. You’d run into lots of monkeys in the wild but not much else (because of all the human activity) unless you got great vision or staring up at trees on the hill side. Maybe you’d spot something more exotic. All I saw were monkeys and spiders, both easily seen in my home town of Mysore. We grew up with monkeys as neighbors. I mean real monkeys, I’m not calling any of my human neighbors as monkeys, they were nice people.


(British built bridge)

The falls had enough water in it, although it wasn’t the season. However, crowds were absent (lucky me) and this tranquil place is best enjoyed with a cool dip in the pool at the foot of the falls. Looking up at the top of the falls, one can see an old Railway Bridge. That was built during the British occupation of India and the trains chugs down the hills, past the falls mid way, on it’s way to Goa or Karnataka on the other end of the line. The bridge and train are still in use as regular service, some people stop coming from Karnataka get off at the Castle Rock station and trek down to the falls.


(At the foot of the falls, a large pool is formed and ideal place to chill)

In the monsoon, when the falls is at its full glory, everything is wet and slippery so be careful and wear the right type of clothing. Watch out for leaches when you trek. Enjoy the bountiful nature around, there’s nothing there that will jump out of the scrubs and eat you so go ahead and be adventurous. Leaving the falls, I came across a resort on the side of the Highway, surrounded by greenery and thickly wooded and well maintained. There was a good restaurant on site with some nice food options. I believe that there were rooms for staying also but I did not stay back and continued on my journey. For those who have been there, I'm sure you had a good time. Others, I'd say you should make a part of your trip to Goa to do things away from the Beaches. There's lots more to Goa and hopefully I'll blog more about my adopted State.

Cross posting

I have been blogging on my other blog: anupmurthy@blogspot.com. Here are the link addresses. Blogger in Singapore acts crazy and does not let me insert links and once again does not allow me and many other bloggers to insert pictures and videos. Something to do with my ISP Singtel (sounds of me banging my head on the wall).

Latest one about Mysore Airport:

http://anupmurthy.blogspot.com/2009/09/saga-continues.html

This one is about the YSR Chopper crash:

http://anupmurthy.blogspot.com/2009/09/sad-questions.html

This one is about the swine flu masks and the humor side of it:

http://anupmurthy.blogspot.com/2009/08/masks-everywhere.html

This one is about the Mysore Airport July update:

http://anupmurthy.blogspot.com/2009/07/mysore-airport-latest-as-on-jul-2009.html

News since then about Mysore Airport is that no operator has agreed to start any flights yet. The Airport is still on course for an opening ceremony on 15th September. State Government does not have any refueling facility at this Airport for now but in future when they actually get the storage tanks built and fuel available, they will supply at a reduced sales tax of 4% in order to encourage operators to fly into Mysore. I hope to do more updates on this soon.

For those following my blog, I apologize, you have already read all my blogs and did not need these links. I had resisted the idea of tweeting for a while, don't know why, finally I am on twitter with the handle: airplanetalk
Happy tweeting all.

Magic has to wait a bit

My Monsoon Magic Part 2 is ready but like many other people, I am having a tough time with Blogger and unable to post pictures and videos. Without being able to do this, I don't want to post the article. So, let's wait and see. In the meantime, I have an anecdote that I remember from my time spent with friends from Thiruvananthapuram. They were a hilarious bunch of people who would, especially after a couple of drinks, let loose jokes from Kerala, mainly targeting their politicians. We used to stay in Male', the capital of Maldives then and our drinking sessions were always fun, argumentative, loud sometimes and there were lot's of stories going around.

At one of these gatherings at a friends place, drinks in hand and snacks on the table all set, the guys started their stories, real anecdotes I was told. I believe the topic was about the Monsoon and how the moisture was trapped by the thick forests of the Western Ghats producing copious amounts of rain like it did this time as well. Apparently this came up as a discussion in the State Assembly when on a debate about deforestation, an MLA made a speech about the ill effects of deforestation and how that was preventing moisture from being trapped, resulting in drought like conditions and so on. A ruling part MLA stood up and rubbished these claims saying that there was really no evidence that cutting down trees reduced rainfall. He said that trees had no role to play regarding rainfall. He continued that he'd seen it rain many times over the open seas and that he had not seen any trees there in the middle of the sea. He sat down triumphantly, having scored a point that could not have been rebutted with a short answer from an MLA who probably could not explain further. Although I don't remember the names of the characters in the story, this just proves how this is the quality of people we chose each time in an election to run our States and Country.

While we always expect nature to live up to expectations and while it did for some this year and did not for a majority of the growing areas of India, there's not much that we do to help heal the planet. I do believe that trees are very important for rainfall to occur. I do believe trees are the greatest gift to the planet, they support entire mini ecosystems within their branches, give life, shade, shelter, homes, food and countless other supports to living creatures. This includes humans of course. They are pleasing to the eye and never fails to me rather calm and collected when I see trees. Monsoon provides the magic and turns all of India green, in a good year. This has a been a mixed year so far. I hope my monsoon magic part 2 can be uploaded soon, before the real monsoon completely runs out of steam!

MONSOON MAGIC PART-1

It’s been bad news about the deficit rainfall in the Northern parts of India so far this year. What started as a slow and perceived deficient rainfall even in Southern India, especially coastal Karnataka and Goa, ended up being surplus by mid July. Although late, copious rains have filled the State’s reservoirs. I witnessed heavy rainfall in coastal Karnataka, Goa and generally the Western Ghats area during this monsoon season during my travels there. I encountered swollen lakes and rivers, broken embankments and general flooding all over the coastal areas between the Western Ghat mountains and the Arabian Sea.


(Muddy swollen rivers all along the roads in coastal Karnataka)

I took a short, well deserved break, in between hectic hospital visits with my dad and the timing coincided with the delivery of my new apartment in Goa, so I decided to head over there by road from Mysore. My plan, although hastily arranged, was to leave Mysore early morning and head up to Jog Falls by lunchtime and after a couple of hours there, we’d leave for Goa and reach the same evening. Jog falls is best seen when the monsoon fury is tapering and the Linganamakki dam over the Sharavathi River is full. Jog Falls is also the highest plunge waterfall in India, falling from a height of about 829 feet. My trip was in the middle of the monsoon and hence what I saw was quite a spectacle but perhaps wasn’t at maximum flow/volume of water.


(Jog Falls July 2009)

Setting out early in the morning from Mysore on an overcast day, the day promised to be a comfortable ride till we started to hit the roads going to Shimoga and believe me, astronauts may have had a better ride on the lunar rover on the lunar surface. Portions of the Highways were badly pitted. My driver also managed to nick a bus, damaging the rear door a bit, while negotiating through the crazy labyrinth of streets that make up Shimoga. It was just after noon when we reached Sagar and Jog Falls, which was perfect, schedule-wise.

I was told by friendly local touts who hang around offering to take photos of people with the falls in the background, that one can view the falls from at least 5 different places. I managed two locations on this trip, the idea being not to spend more than two hours in Jog, after all I had to head down the mountains to coastal Karnataka and Goa the same evening.


(Here's a short video I took of Jog Falls)

The main view of the Falls is from a viewing area directly in front of it. The tourism guys have built platforms and steps to accommodate a large number of people who come to view the falls. The main area also has some accommodation facilities and restaurants. Another popular viewpoint is the one from across the main viewing area, in a place called the British Bungalow. I guess the Brits built it during their heyday in India, the small Bungalow now eclipsed by a large new edifice that will serve as an inn or hotel in the near future. If time permits, I recommend an arduous climb down the steps to the foot of the falls when the weather is right. Don’t forget the even more arduous climb back, up to the car park/bus stop area! I had done this trek long back and it was more arduous then, I don’t remember the steps being as good as it is now.


(Another short video of the falls from the main viewing area)

What was mesmerizing was all the mist created by the water falling from such a great height. Clouds of heavy mist would drift in and out, occasionally blanking out the view of the falls and the surrounding hills completely and then vanishing mysteriously. There was intermittent drizzle from the rain, nothing that drenched us but enough to create a magical atmosphere overall. It's no wonder male and female leads in Indian movies break out into song and dance routine in such locales, the environment makes one want to sing and dance! I wouldn't try it, having been born with mediocre voice and two left feet..


(View of the steps leading down to the foot of the falls and the falls viewed from British Bungalow side)

The weather, the journey so far and the views - all combined to give me a good appetite as we headed for one of the two restaurants that were available at site. While the food wasn’t great and ambiance lacking, a hungry stomach can pack in anything. But this is where we as a country, lose the plot. Karnataka tourism can do so much more to improve facilities in such a popular tourist destination but one wonders why nothing is done.

The best thing was the timing of this trip, although unintentional, it is during this time that few people visit the falls. Crowds of visitors had stayed away, maybe because there weren’t any holidays around the corner and perhaps most people visit during the end of the monsoon period. It was quite peaceful for us and that made the visit quite memorable. I had not seen Jog Falls in twenty-five years and had quite forgotten how spectacular it really is. I hope the pictures and video does some justice. The trip down the Ghats to Goa and back will be posted next. That was one rough ride I'd never forget!

Random Memories

There's been too much going on recently, that's good, in a way. So when I got some leisure time, a single malt with Ice in my hand and a surprising urge to write, I had no topic to focus on! So, here are some of my random memories of my travel days gone by.

A decade back when I did a lot of exciting trips, there was no blogging and I never kept a real diary of events and anecdotes that I should have written down somewhere, even on a piece of paper. In some cases I did record things in writing and in some cases I simply forgot to write. One such event was my adventurous trip into the jungles of Honduras, in a retired American school bus turned public transport, sharing seats with entirely Spanish speaking rural Hondurans and their chickens on bumpy mountain roads. I was on my way to see the Mayan ruins of Copan Ruinas, a fine example of the Mayan civilization with one of the best recorded historical evidence of how the Mayans lived. This is now just a slowly fading memory. I knew a smattering of Spanish then, having listened to tape recorded manuals for learning Spanish, available freely at the Miami Central Library in Miami, Florida (where else?). That was enough to equip myself to travel to a country that spoke no English and to wander around the little villages so equipped! That's another story to write, I know.

Maybe I should re-look at those photographs and try and remember little things to put down in a blog. The archaeologist hidden in me says, go and dig - Unearth those pictures and tell your story, my mind urges. After I take another sip of this fine single malt whiskey, I tell myself but never manage to go on this "dig".

There was this time, eight years ago that I went into the mountains in Central Cyprus to visit the famous lace making town of Lefkara. I still have some lace items from there hanging around. No blogging then either but I do have a few things written down for me to remember. That's a visit that I had enjoyed as well, the archaeologist hidden in me had the most fun. Lefkara was actually a diversion. My main goal was to visit one of the best preserved Neolithic settlement in Eastern Mediterranean, a site more than 8,000 years old (no, there is no mistake in the zeroes following 8). This place is unique in the sense that other than the fact that Neolithic people lived as a well organized society, there is also direct evidence, perhaps for the first time, of humans and cats living together. Human and cat remains have been found in graves, side by side, indicated a "master and pet" relationship. I am not surprised though, human - animal domestic relationship in my opinion, perhaps stretches far back in time than that. but here was direct evidence. Earlier schools of thought put the cat as being domesticated and living with humans, as recorded in Egyptian history. That actually came much later that's much later than this settlement in Cyprus. The bones of the cat are intact and there is no evidence of the cat having been hunted and killed. People used to be buried with their "wealth" and items that they held close. Anyway, that's another story for another blog. I've shot loads of pictures, need to dig them out too.

Let's see. Where were we? Oh yeah, I'm still in the "archaeology mood" and I just remembered another trip done around the same period. That was an inadvertent trip, afforded to me due to a technical glitch in the Airplane that I was flying (as pilot). I got stranded in Ahmedabad, a city in the Western State of India for a couple of days. This was a ferry flight and no one was really inconvenienced, matter of fact this trip ranks among my most favorite ones and became a part of my cherished memory.

I had been somewhat familiar with the so-called Indus Valley civilization (which now is a misnomer since the Saraswathi river had hundreds more civilized settlement 4,500 years ago than the Indus Valley). So, some drive away from Ahmedabad I stumbled into, what I would call, a spectacular site of ruins of the ancient city of Lothal. It took some doing to get there since most taxi operators in Ahmedabad, sadly, were not even aware of this place. Lothal was a rich "inland" port, a unique place of commerce and civilization around 2400 B.C.E. I know this "Inland port" statement of mine may have evoked some curiosity, that's got to wait till I write about it or one can find out about that on the net of course. I shot loads of pictures here too and I promise that's going to be a part of another blog.

Maybe I should write about the time that I fell into the river accidentally and broke my finger in Udawalawe National Park in Sri Lanka while ogling at Elephant herds, grounding me and the plane for some time. I remember the 6 hour ride back to Colombo for medical attention, multiple fractures that too. That incident gave me the opportunity of going uphill to Kandy to see the Buddha's relic (Temple of the Tooth) and to wander around some parts of Sri Lanka, a country I have visited many times.

Or maybe I should write about the trip to Guatemala with the threat of banditos lurking around in the hills or maybe about that beautiful walk I took, around a crater lake (caused by a Meteor, eons ago) in Central Grenada surrounded by total silence and nutmeg trees, not necessarily in that order! The silence is only broken by sounds of birds in the trees and the crunching of nutmeg shells strewn on the ground crackling under my foot. That's another experience I can never forget. You'll find the tiny Island of Grenada in the West Indies, just north of Trinidad and Tobago - cricket fans would know this place.

I promise to write about all of the above. How about the fabulous years I spent in the Maldives flying around the beautiful Islands until the Tsunami hit us?....and the time we saw hundreds of Dolphins and I mean hundreds. So many Dolphins that actually caused a flotilla of sea taxis to halt in their position mid sea. These sea taxis are called Dhonies in Maldives and thay ply between the Airport Island to the capital city-Island of Male'. The taxi on both sides of the channel actually stopped and waited for the entire herd to pass, taking more than ten minutes. I can never forget that sight, of hundreds of Dolphins going by, some doing spectacular flips and leaps out of the water. I could actually have died of contentment and joy that filled me then, nothing more needed to live for, having seen what I considered quite divine. And I had seen them from so close that I could have reached out and touched one, standing near the sea wall in Male'. What else is there to see on this otherwise strange planet, when one has seen divinity? When I think of that scene, I still get goose bumps.

I didn't die, of course, still sitting here in my tenth floor apartment in Singapore, typing in between taking sips from my depleting glass. Strange things it does, to the mind, this fine single malt going smoothly down my throat. I can go on and on but that would be pointless. Maybe I should not promise to write these stories and maybe you should not take me too seriously and wait for me to write them! Who knows when that will happen? Cheers! Hic...

REGIONAL AIRLINES UPDATE FROM INDIA

One and a half years ago, January 13th 2006 precisely, I wrote a piece on my blog (http://mymysore72.blogspot.com/2006_01_01_archive.html) titled "wake up airline investors..." and that was about how the hinterland in India was largely unserviced by any Airline or operator in India. I had predicted that new investments were required from private players to tap this market. I had also predicted that the boom in aviation in future woukd come from the hinterlands.

Why am I rehashing old stuff? Well, news from India that I am following on the net these days suggests that the Ministry of Civil Aviation is paving the way for new "regional airline" operators to connect hitherto unconnected airports, using "regional" aircraft. There are some riders attached to the policy to ensure that regional routes are the primary business of the operators and to ensure that new licenses given for an airline does not violate the reduced norms of the Government.

The policy of encouraging new entrants to service the regional sectors is a good one. I am sure that feasibility of operating to smaller towns is not going to be a factor and I predict that the revenue yield per seat is going to be much above what "national" airlines are getting for their trunk routes. The new policy also allows existing operators to have regional subsidiaries but the license given will be in a different category. The Government has also offered lots of sops for companies willing to operate on these sectors, just to give them a jumpstart. I hope that new operators take this gauntlet tossed to them by the Ministry and turn this into profitable ventures. I say again, in my opinion, the hinterland in India is where the next boom is, for sure.

I guess this comes a little late, but better late than never, says an old cliche'. I have been shouting hoarse for a while on this subject. I don't believe for a second that the Aviation Minister read my blog of a year and half back although that would be flattering if he did! Only my fanciful thinking! I had to do this piece, felt good to be writing about aviation again.

FIRST BLOOD DRAWN?

I have been away in Macao and almost missed some stories from back home in India. When I got to Singapore, the first news from India that caught my eye was about Indus Airways stopping flights and shutting down. It brought back memories from the 1990's when start-up airlines in India started folding, one after another.

Funnily enough, I had written in December last year that some of the airlines in India are run on ego and not on sound business plan and I had predicted their closure. This included Indus, as evidenced from one of my replies to a comment from a reader. My post got some bouquets and brickbats, as it usually does, with some going on to refute my prediction. I had mentioned that the reasons for my observations were based on pure math and also from knowing that the wrong aircraft for the wrong routes and wrong pricing can never add up to profits.

The writing is on the wall, I had said, sounding more like a doomsday prophet than an aviation professional, and some had questioned my observation about corporate investment in the airline sector.

I had said in my blog then "There's another curious activity going on these days that's also making news. Financial companies, investment firms and other corporate types are buying up small equity shares in some of the Airlines. I don't know why and some seem keen on picking up larger equity. I don't know who is advising these guys and I'll bet there is an army of CA's and MBA's in ties involved. I did hear some sound bites from the "experts" about this and they were saying: "these are very positive a signs indeed, signs of maturity, such an investment lends credibility etc" and all that hogwash these guys come up with. And they get paid a mint, mind you, to say all this rubbish".

I had written about specifically the TATA group having picked up a stake in Spice Jet and that I thought was a mistake. This led to a question from a reader asking why I did not support corporate investment in Aviation business. I had felt that while corporate investment in the Airline sector was a good thing to have, it did not make much sense for a company to invest blindly. TATAs do know a thing or two about Aviation but on the advice of some of their financial consultants it seems, they had found it prudent to pick up some equity in Spice Jet.

So, coming to Spice Jet's current cup of woes, the latest news projects Spice Jet's loss this quarter is up by 395%. Staggering? It would be for any one else but as I mentioned, some one keeps injecting some fresh life in the scene and things keep floating for a longer time.

I have heard that the other Airlines are all keeping a positive attitude - that's good because that's all they can do; keep positive. They will paint red all over the skies with their results this year, notwithstanding bravado statements from the "glitterati" of aviation. The sector is set to lose something like Rs.1,800 crores and that’s no small change! Like I said before, it's been good for the flying public, cheap fares and all. My advice, stop complaining and keep flying. When more airlines fold up, the fares are heading north for sure!

So, we have the first blood drawn in this aviation scenario. Luckily it has not been a bloodbath in terms of an all out price war and the intention of one Airline to see another go down the tubes and fail. My blog on Macao had to wait for this piece, just had to get this one off my chest. This blog appeared first in desicritics.org

IS CHINA AND JAPAN A PART OF ASIA OR NOT?

I am sure my readers may be wondering what I am talking about in my curious headline. Let me begin by saying that the Indian media, whether print or TV, has most of the time got it wrong when it comes to reporting about Aviation. I have been ranting about this aspect in a few of my previous articles now confined to the archives on my blog. I have often wondered whether the mis-reporting is because of the lack of knowledge of the subject or the media's obsession with the industry termed as a "glamorous" one. Of course anyone in Aviation will tell you that we are in it because of our love for all things flying and has nothing to do with glamour. Most of us know that the glamour tag is only that - a tag! Let me not digress from the topic and come straight to the issue.

I saw a news report on CNN-IBN online recently and apparently it was on TV as well about the impending merger of Air India and Indian Airlines. Great, long time coming and better now than never. That's not the reason for my grouse against the reporting. The news continues to say that the said merger will create Asia's largest Airline! Wow! Another news report says that compared to Asian tigers such as Singapore Airlines, Malaysian and Thai, the merged Airline will be larger with around 110 Aircraft (never mind some of them are very old Aircraft in terrible condition and need to be replaced asap) and with purchases of new jets, the fleet size is going to be around 130. Fantastic I thought, until a quick research on the net showed Singapore Airlines with a bit more than 90 Aircraft currently and 110 on order. You do the math. But that's not the end of the story, there's more to it. And that pertains to China and Japan.

One of the things that a reporter can do these days before cooking up stories is browse the web, collect better information and then say what they need to say in print, online and on TV. Not so in the CNN-IBN case. The reporter makes a sweeping statement that AI-IA will be Asia's biggest Airline when merged into a single entity.

Forget Singapore Airlines and the other 'Tiger' economies of the region for the moment and think China. What did I say? China? Oh right. There is a country called china and maybe they have some Airlines too flying there, right? If the naive Indian media thought that the Airline sector in India was booming, they need to pay attention to the giant next door where Airlines are not only booming but booming a lot louder than any one in India. Like I said, all that a news reporter has to do these days it to simply browse the web and do a bit of research. I will only give two examples here about the size of the fleet of Airlines in China:

1. China Southern Airlines has a fleet of 235 Aircraft and 99 more on order.
2. China Eastern Airlines has a fleet of 186 Aircraft currently.

Here's one example as far as Japan is concerned. Japan Airlines (JAL) has a current Aircraft fleet strength of 232 Aircraft with 75 more on order. That's mammoth.

One must ask these reporters and the channels whether China and Japan are considered as a part of Asia or not. If they are to be considered as a part of Asia, then quite clearly the AI-IA merged entity CANNOT be the largest Airline in Asia. I did put in a comment on the online website of CNN-IBN. Who cares to read or respond?

Is it not time for the Indian media to stop hyping everything about India and especially about aviation in India and creating a myth that does not exist? Is it not time that the Indian media realize that everyone who reads their reporting are not fools and do a bit of research before saying something without basis? One need not be a rocket scientist to do the math or need to be an aviator to read between the lines.

HOW’S 2007 GOING TO BE, IN INDIAN AVIATION?

This time last year, I wrote a post called year end aviation review. Here’s my review/Q&A/Synopsis/lop sided theories, call it by any name…..

What’s the bottom line going to be in 2007 for the average Indian flyer?

For the consumer, lower fares, more options to travel and better connectivity. Simple, anyone could have told you that. For the Airlines in India, more red ink as each one of them battle for the same piece of the ever expanding pie. Ever expanding pie must mean higher levels of income and profitability for the Airlines, right? Sorry, that was too easy, wasn’t it? Passenger growth has been phenomenal, no doubt but the average yield has actually gone down.

Airlines here think their strength is going to be due to economics of scale, more Airplanes, more seats, more routes and they can control pricing. Well, it works in theory, in some analysts theories. Ground reality is that, similar overcapacity in the U.S. drove a lot of the majors into bankruptcy courts forcing them to cut employee strengths, wages, return Airplanes that they had leased, cancel orders for new purchases of Airplanes and so on.

Noted analysts in the US say that this led to a reduction in seat capacity a bit and now the same analysts are predicting a banner year for US Airline industry because of the seat capacity reduction, costs under control and excellent passenger growth. This has prompted the carriers there to actually increase fares by 15-20% for economy class and reportedly 40% for business class, and still going full. That’s great and the analysts are calculating a profit (hold your breath) of US$2.3 Billion (that’s right, billion, with a “B”), despite the rising cost of fuel, as against more than $35 Billion in losses the US Airline industry suffered between 2001 and 2005 and $11 Billion losses in 2002 alone. Now, this is not to say that all carriers are going to be profitable, just that some of them that got the basics right, finally, are going to make it and have made it. One carrier that’s noteworthy (no, not southWest, which is going to make record profits yet again) is Continental Airlines. American Airlines is going to show more revenue from fewer seats.

What lessons can we learn in 2007?

Anyway, let me not digress from the Indian aviation scenario. What lessons can we learn from the US experience? Well, firstly, let us admit that even though we’d like to think that we are the brainiest people on the planet that’s heading out to becoming a superpower and that we don’t need lessons from anybody, the ground reality is that aviation stumps the best guy around. It’s a nasty business that bites you back, if you are an investor. It is time to look around. Wake up, smell the coffee and realize that your business plan should be your own and not driven by the desire to surpass some one else. You should identify what’s going to make you money and how to cut costs and make it more efficient, not be driven by this crazy concept that “I will be the largest Airline one day and will build up a nice brand and be able to control everything”. Wrong! That’s only going to make a bigger mess for you and the rest of the industry that can’t seem to get a grip on things. I’ll stop the lecturing here and move on to the next question.

What’s 2007 going to hold for investors in aviation?

An analyst in the US said Airline stocks must come with a warning (much like cigarette packs): “trading in Airline stocks may be hazardous to your wealth”. I say this again to the Indian public, if you think you are going to make money from investing in Airline shares, be prepared to lose all of it next year. In the short term, there’s going to be no miracle. Remember the past in India, and all the Airlines that went bad whose shares were trading at such high levels then and now the same shares are not worth not even the paper they are printed on.

Some Airlines claim that they don’t need to go public and they have enough reserves to last the distance. Well, good for them, let the passenger make use of their lovely services till they run out. Some Airlines think that they will get into profitability as soon as they go International. I don’t know who advises these guys but margins on International flights are coming down plenty and the number of carriers and their frequencies for the same set of destinations is increasing all the time. It is not a magic formula “lets go International and we will be doing well”.

All sounds depressing? It could have been worse but some deep pockets by all players concerned seem to be delaying the ultimate – going belly up. The media in India will, by and large, keep aviation in the news making it sound glamorous and chic to be in the business. That’s one way to beat depression, read nice stories about aviation. The good news will come to those that can act in the right manner.

How is the quality of my travel going to be in 2007?

Well, this is an easy one. It’s not going to be better than what you had in 2006. In terms of congestion, circling over major airports, ground and in-flight services will all be the same, matter of fact you’ll be slightly worse off regarding congestion and crowding because nothing’s improved in that area. Hyderabad and Bangalore’s new airports are slated to open little later, perhaps in 2008 and that may reduce congestion at these airports but may increase problems connecting to the airports by road or rail, especially in Bangalore.

The prices are going to remain low; I hope that for god’s sake, not lower than current levels. You as consumer should be happy with what you are paying now and maybe pay a bit more. It is in your interest that competition remains and that competitors are aplenty. If not, you’d back to square one with few competitors and monopolistic pricing of tickets and that’s going to hurt you. The Airlines, those surviving of course, will be laughing all the way to the Bank. At least that’s what it is, in theory!

Happy New Year to all my readers! Safe landings in 2007!

AIRLINES IN THE NEWS AGAIN:

Airlines make news for all kinds of reasons and even if they are small ones, they get the kind of exposure that even large manufacturers of other products don’t get. It is a glamour industry after all. Underneath it all, there’s very little glamour and a lot of red ink on the bottom line, be it an American, European, Asian or any other carrier of any other nationality. There are some exceptions and they are just that - exceptions. These include Gol in South America, a low cost, low fare Airline. Also add to this mix, SouthWest in the United States, Ryanair and EasyJet and a couple of Asian ones that are not listed on any stock exchange and hence difficult to verify whether they are as profitable as they claim.

Now, coming to the story in India, people who made claims that their Airline will make profits from the first year of starting operations, face heavy losses. It’s not good times for them or their competition, even though the Indian market has grown tremendously and is set to grow at a rapid pace. So how come no one is making money? Not one, none, zip, zilch, nada. In fact they are losing in buckets. Well, there are many reasons for this and I have put in my two bit a few times before and other “experts” in the field will be quick to come up with fantastic quotes and theories about the subject.

Airlines are also making the news for other reasons too. I had been talking about mergers, acquisitions, Airlines in India slipping into the red, consolidations and all that, at this time last year. When I wrote 2005 Aviation year end review and a few more articles after that, I had predicted that such things would happen and in fact it has become the order of the day. Let’s not talk about the major Airlines in the US that are merging or talking about some sort of consolidation. Let me just talk about India for the time being.

I don’t claim that I was the only one who saw it coming last year, about losses in aviation and the need to merge, consolidate and all that, there were a few others, but industry captains at that time were quite gung ho in their attitude. Not too many of the so-called experts whose sound bites get recorded from time to time in India predicted a bloodbath in terms of red ink. One of these expert organizations even gave away awards for Airlines as being the best in terms of glitz, glamour, quality of service, blah, blah, blah. Of course surveys were conducted using passengers. Smooze a guy and he'll love you. Ask him about management of the Airline, ground operations chaos, technical deficiencies and he'll give you a blank look.

Smoozing your customer is good but how about running a profitable company? How about getting an award for being the most profitable or even barely viable Airline of the year? First prize goes to so and so Airline for making ends meet. That would be good. There would be no Airline in India that can claim this prize at the moment.

The Captains of the industry only saw roses or fooled the public into thinking that way and made money out of them. Case in point Jet Airways Initial Public Offering priced at Indian Rupees 1250 (was it) and the share value is now down to less than half the IPO amount. Look at any other Airline, and they are struggling.

Sure there are genuine problems of tarmac space; congestion in the skies, antiquated air traffic equipment and systems, ill-trained foreign (chaps who can't speak English well enough to be understood by ATC) and Indian pilots (who can't land in Delhi in fog because they are not suitably trained), add the lack of quality middle and upper management and the masala becomes a dangerous mix. Add to this broth, the offering of free seats, deeply discounted cheap tickets, free gifts, low cut blouses and short skirts and you’ve got the public salivating and traveling in larger numbers than ever before. Good for the common man and he should make the most of it while the party lasts. And it ain’t gonna last long. Why? Again, many reasons for it and also the fact that all of these guys fly to the same few Airports in India. Air Deccan being the exception because their larger reach into secondary towns and airports using turboprop Aircraft. Now Indus in the North wants to do the same except that they will use regional jets. Good luck, because it ain’t gonna work.

That’s when mergers and consolidations become a necessity, and I still predict some large scale bankruptcies that will leave a lot of employees and others high and dry. People who you see on TV sporting large smiles and making outlandish predictions will get out of the business, surely they are packaging the business to sell. As I had mentioned previously and keep saying this, there are already some moves for consolidations, even small carriers such as Indus (never heard of them? Don’t worry) is tying up with Air Sahara, already tottering on the edge themselves.

An example of a merger going bad: Jet Airways went through a costly exercise of trying to acquire Air Sahara and calling off the wedding at the last minute. I daresay Jet actually gained from the annulment even if it meant that they would lose a lot of money. If that merger had taken place, Jets bottom line would have become deep purple (apologies to the band), forget red!

Airlines in India have already consolidated in one way. They have formed a lobby of sorts. Long term scenario? Let’s see now. I'l close my eyes, pretend I am a soothsayer and predict that a couple of Airlines are going to go down (as in closing down, don’t want to scare the reader), a couple of them being sold off and a few mergers happening. Result will be that the fare paying passenger is going to have to pay more money, that’s for sure. In any case, running an Airline below cost (or any other business for that matter) is not viable. Don't need to be an expert to say this.

There’s another curious activity going on these days that’s also making news. Financial companies, investment firms and other corporate types are buying up small equity shares in some of the Airlines. I don’t know why and some seem keen on picking up larger equity. I don’t know who is advising these guys and I’ll bet there is an army of CA’s and MBA’s in ties involved. Oh, I did hear some sound bites from the “experts” about this and they were saying: “these are very positive a signs indeed, signs of maturity, such an investment lends credibility etc etc” and all that hogwash these guys come up with. And they get paid a mint, mind you, to say all this rubbish.

Remember the late 90’s when over a hundred chaps in ties converged on Damania Airways and the Airline was taken over by NEPC Airlines in what was then termed as the “fastest Airline take over in the history of aviation”. Remember that? What the business magazines, newspapers and TV’s forgot to mention later was, that this was also perhaps the “fastest Airline to go down the tubes after the take over in history”. Leave the suits and ties chaps who came out Biz schools out of this, they don’t understand aviation. You don’t wear a suit and sit in an office and learn about aviation. That ain't gonna happen.

A friend of a friend recently commented that the Airlines may actually be profitable but are probably showing losses to avoid taxation. I wanted to shake him badly to wake him up. It does not take a rocket scientist to do the math on the revenues and expenditures. I’ve done the math and such works as feasibility studies for Airlines overseas too. And it is just plain silly to underestimate the clever Indian taxman. Avoid taxation? Good joke.

To the flying public, I say, go fly. Go everywhere you want to go. Because you can afford to do so, at least for now. Like I said before, it ain’t gonna last. Happy Landings.